Decline Halted by Cast Iron Pan
Rosstat reported yesterday that the industrial growth in Russia slowed down to 1.6 percent on year in October (6 percent in October of 2007); the September growth reached 6.3 percent and the indicator equaled 4.7 percent in August. The industry stepped up 5 percent in January through October vs. 6.5 percent a year earlier.
But in the Center of Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, they apparently think different, claiming the industrial production sank 0.8 percent on year in October rather than grew by 1.6 percent. According to the centerâ€™s analysts, Rosstat actively applies the so-called finish-counting methods in its statistics. In October, for instance, the official statistics reported production of 12 million items of cast-iron ware. But Russia hasnâ€™t produced it in the recent years and it looks like a month production will suffice to supply cast-iron ware to each third family of the country, the analysts commented.
The industry slowed down in November on decline in the metal, chemical and construction material branches, Rosstat said. Rolled ferrous metal production shed 21.6 percent, rolling-mill machinery lost 37 percent, fertilizers declined 14.5 percent, cement lowered 20 percent, tower cranes sank 62.2 percent.
â€œThe decline will be seen in other sectors in November and December,â€ said Vladimir Tikhomirov from Uralsib. â€œI wonâ€™t be surprised if October investments show the minus. The stagnation is evident, and the industry follows the inertial scenario. You may forget about the growth, if this scenario is implemented in 2009,â€ forecasted Anton Struchevsky from Troika Dialog.